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November 2019
Predictions for Next Month
Regional Predictions *
Hospitals in the Midwest anticipate the biggest year-over-year gains in December, with Operating EBITDA Margin predicted to rise 18 percent or 316 bps. Month over month, however, the region predicts a decrease of -5.0 percent or -91 bps. The West expects to see the most significant decreases, with Operating EBITDA Margin projected to fall -32.7 percent or -279 bps month over month, and -11.0 percent or -130 bps year over year.
Hospitals in the South expect to see relatively steady performance, however, with Operating EBITDA Margin up just 1.0 percent or 34 bps year over year and down -1.6 percent or -40 bps month over month.
% Change
Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Hospitals across the country anticipate significant month-over-month decreases in margin performance as the calendar year comes to a close next month, but moderate year-over-year gains. Operating EBITDA Margin is expected to fall -8.9 percent or -129.6 bps month over month in December, but increase 3.6 percent or 85.1 bps year over year.
Similarly, Operating Margin is predicted to fall -14.6 percent or -140.5 bps month over month, but increase 3.7 percent or 86.2 percent year over year.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
(8.9%)
3.6%
Operating_EBITDA_Margin.svg
Operating Margin
(14.6%)
3.7%
Operating_Margin.svg
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
(129.6)
85.1
Operating_EBITDA_Margin_Abs.svg
Operating Margin
(140.5)
86.2
Operating_Margin_Abs.svg
Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
Bed Size Predictions
Most bed-size cohorts expect to see month-over-month decreases in Operating EBITDA Margin in December. Hospitals with 200-299 beds are the exception, predicting a month-over-month increase of 3.0 percent or 51.5 bps and a year-over-year increase of 9.0 percent or 172 bps.
Hospitals with 300-499 beds anticipate the largest year-over-year decreases, with Operating EBITDA Margin expected to fall -11.0 percent or -141 bps year over year. This bed-size cohort also expects to see month-over-month declines in Operating EBITDA Margin of -9.0 percent or -137.4 bps next month.
% Change
Absolute Change
©2019 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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