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May 2019
Predictions for Next Month
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Regional Predictions ?
Regionally, June performance is expected to be mixed. Hospitals in the West and South anticipate year-over-year improvements in performance of around 190 bps to 290 bps respectively, and both regions expect performance to improve compared to April. The Great Plains region predicts the largest decrease in performance, likely due to the larger proportion of small hospitals in that area and the headwinds faced by those organizations.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Nationally, predictions for June anticipate a year-over-year decline in both Operating EBITDA Margin and Operating Margin. Operating EBITDA Margin is expected to decline by more than 28 bps and Operating Margin is expected to decline by more than 24 bps.
Compared to April performance, however, profitability is expected to increase in June for both Operating EBITDA Margin and Operating Margin. The spread of both profitability key performance indicators highlights relatively even distributions, indicating that similar numbers of hospitals have budgeted for increases and decreases in June, with only slightly more predicting improved performance.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
7.6%
(4.3%)
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Operating Margin
9.7%
(3.4%)
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Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
91.6
(28.9)
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Operating Margin
54.4
(24.4)
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Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
Bed Size Predictions
Like the national observations, most hospital bed-size cohorts predict a year-over-year decrease in profitability performance—albeit only a minor decrease. Hospitals with bed sizes of 100-199 are the exception, as they predict significant improvement, with Operating EBITDA Margin up about 500 bps year over year. The smallest hospitals predict the greatest decrease in performance relative to the same period in 2018, a consistent trend with the budgets of the smallest hospitals.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
©2019 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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