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July 2019
Predictions for Next Month
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Regional Predictions ?
There is quite mixed performance relative to the month-over-month predictions. The Midwest is expecting to show a large improvement over last month, when the region incurred poor performance relative to EBITDA margin, but is anticipating almost no change year over year. The South and West are just about tied for their conservative predictions of decreases of about 200 bps relative to last month, with the South also predicting a decrease year over year.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Next month is predicted to be down on a year-to-year basis for both Operating EBITDA Margin and Operating Margin, but up month over month. EBITDA margin is predicted to be down slightly by 49.5 bps from last year and up 88.5 bps from last month. Last month was a bad month for profitability, so the relatively large month-over-month increase is reflected in the budget predictions as well. Interestingly, because the decline is greater in Operating EBITDA Margin than Operating Margin, the impact of depreciation is less than last year. The spreads of Operating Margin performance are relatively even, indicating almost equal numbers of hospital with improvements as with decreases. Operating EBITDA Margin is skewed to the positive, indicating that a few hospitals predict strong improvements while nearly half predict decreases year over year.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
11.0%
(5.2%)
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Operating Margin
29.0%
(4.7%)
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Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
88.5
(49.5)
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Operating Margin
124.0
(23.0)
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Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
Bed Size Predictions
Hospitals of various bed sizes are also predicting mixed performance relative to last month and last year. Interestingly, both the smallest and largest hospitals are expecting decreases month over month, but the largest hospitals are expecting an increase in EBITDA margin year over year. The 26-99 and 300-399 bed-size cohorts are expecting similar change relative to last month, but again, the larger hospitals are predicting improvement over last year. Finally, the 100-199 bed-size cohort is expecting the largest change relative to last month, but is expecting to be down slightly from last year.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
©2019 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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