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January 2020
Predictions for Next Month
Regional Predictions *
Margin performance projections for February vary widely across different regions. Hospitals in the Great Plains, South, and Midwest all expect to see year-over-year increases, but month-over-month decreases in Operating EBITDA Margin. The Midwest anticipates the most significant year-over-year increase at 15 percent, while the Great Plains expect the largest month-over-month decrease at -23.6 percent.
Hospitals in the West expect Operating EBITDA Margin to decrease -4 percent year over year and -16.4 percent month over month, while hospitals in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic anticipate a year-over-year decrease of -8 percent and a month-over-month increase of 2.0 percent.
% Change
Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Hospitals across the country expect to see margins increase year over year, but decrease month over month in February. Operating EBITDA Margin is projected to increase 4.1 percent or 47.5 bps year over year, but decrease -5.2 percent or -86.2 bps month over month.
Operating Margin is expected to follow a similar pattern, increasing 7.8 percent or 65.6 bps year over year, but decreasing -14.1 percent or -118.8 bps month over month.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
(5.2%)
4.1%
operating_ebitda_margin.svg
Operating Margin
(14.1%)
7.8%
operating_margin.svg
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
(86.2)
47.5
operating_ebitda_margin_abs.svg
Operating Margin
(118.8)
65.6
operating_margin_abs.svg
Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
Bed Size Predictions
Most bed-size cohorts anticipate month-over-month decreases in Operating EBITDA Margin in February, ranging from -1.0 percent for the largest hospitals of 500 beds or more, to -23.0 percent for the smallest hospitals of 0-25 beds. Hospitals with 100-199 beds are the exception, projecting Operating EBITDA Margin to remain flat month over month, and increase a slight 1.0 percent year over year.
Hospitals with 26-99 beds anticipate the biggest year-over-year increase in Operating EBITDA Margin of 15 percent, while hospitals with 500 beds or more expect the biggest year-over-year decrease at -7 percent.
% Change
Absolute Change
©2020 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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