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February 2020
Predictions for Next Month
Regional Predictions *
Margin performance projections for March vary across different regions. Hospitals in the Great Plains and Midwest expect to see increases in Operating EBITDA Margin both year over year and month over month. The Midwest anticipates the most significant year-over-year increase at 13.0 percent, while the Great Plains expects a 12.0 percent increase.
Hospitals in the West expect Operating EBITDA Margin to decrease -10.0 percent year over year and -3.4 percent month over month. Hospitals in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic anticipate a year-over-year increase of 4.0 percent and a month-over-month decrease of -1.3 percent, while those in the South anticipate a 1.0 percent year-over-year increase and a -0.4 percent month-over-month decrease.
% Change
Absolute Change
National Margin Predictions
Hospitals across the country expect to see improved margin performance in March, with increases projected both year over year and month over month. Operating EBITDA Margin is expected to increase 2.8 percent or 34.6 bps year over year, and 2.8 percent or 46.8 bps month over month.
Operating Margin is expected to follow a similar pattern, increasing 5.4 percent or 48.9 bps year over year, and 3.3 percent or 28.2 bps month over month.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
2.8%
2.8%
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Operating Margin
3.3%
5.4%
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Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
46.8
34.6
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Operating Margin
28.2
48.9
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Margin Prediction % Change
Margin Prediction Absolute Change
Bed Size Predictions
Most bed-size cohorts anticipate year-over-year and month-over-month increases in Operating EBITDA Margin in March. Hospitals with 100-199 beds anticipate the biggest increases at 11.0 percent year over year and 6.0 percent month over month.
Hospitals with 200-299 beds expect Operating EBITDA Margin performance to be flat year over year, but increase 6 percent month over month, while hospitals with 26-99 beds expect to performance to be flat month over month, but up 3 percent year over year. The nation’s smallest hospitals with 0-25 beds expect to see Operating EBITDA Margin increase 2.0 percent year over year, but decrease significantly, -26.0 percent month over month.
% Change
Absolute Change
©2020 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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