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December 2018
Predictions for Next Month
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Regional Predictions ?
Regionally, next month performance is expected to be quite scattered. The West and Northeast predict favorable year-over-year changes and mixed month-over-month changes, while the remaining regions all predict unfavorable year-over-year changes. The South predicts the largest year-over-year declines, while still remaining slightly ahead of November’s performance.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Profitability is expected to decline next month compared to prior year, but increase slightly from November 2018. Interestingly, EBITDA is predicted to decline more than operating margin, indicating that operational changes are at the heart of the prediction more than non-operating/capital impacts. As a new fiscal year begins for many hospitals, these observations likely reflect some increased conservatism in budgeting, as hospitals face continued pressures.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
1.7%
(3.1%)
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Operating Margin
4.3%
(0.8%)
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Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
27.5
(35.0)
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Operating Margin
60.0
(4.5)
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Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
Bed Size Predictions
Performance projections are mixed across the bed-size cohorts. The smallest hospitals predict the most unfavorable changes, both relative to current month and next month. This trend has been observed in past issues of the National Hospital Flash Report, highlighting these hospitals’ conservative budgeting, which aligns with actual posted performance. The smallest hospitals continue to be more challenged than larger hospitals. Other bed-size cohorts predict favorable year-over-year and month-over-month changes, with hospitals of >500 beds and 200-299 beds reflecting the most ambitious improvements. Next month’s issue will review their performance to see how well these hospitals fare in the new year relative to their budgets.
% Change
Absolute Change
% Change
Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
©2018 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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